Probabilistic experiences

#65 - May.2023

As AI and predictive solutions scale, we'll tend towards experiences that rely on probabilistic results, rather than deterministic ones.

The challenge of this approach is how you incorporate in your design core principles such as clarity and trust. A deterministic experience is highly correlated with a clear understanding and interpretation of what the software is doing.

On the other hand, an experience based on probabilities, as many of the regression and classification algorithms in AI, requires prioritizing better handling of uncertainty, consistent feedback loops, and transparency.

Ultimately, clarity may results in higher trust from your users even if anecdotal experience still plays a big role in decision-making when using such technologies.

Some practical ideas to consider when designing this type of experience: calibrate your data assumptions through real-time customer feedback, provide visibility on how you are reaching the outputs, and give context on the degree of uncertainty when conveying a recommendation.